TTP violence has staged a comeback after assumption of power by the Afghan Taliban regime in Afghanistan. According to a think tank’s report, the TTP attacks had increased by 27% in 2022 compared to 2021, and 70 attacks have been witnessed since May 23 alone. Starting with eighty casualties in Peshawar Police mosque attack and 4 deaths in Karachi Police compound attack in February, there has been a metronomic regularity of attacks. Hard targets like Brigade Headquarters Zhob have also not been spared signifying desperation and rashness in TTP terrorism. Why this spike in terrorist acts has happened now and what sustains it are the questions worth introspecting.
First a reality check on our part is in order. Our expectations of a friendly Taliban government have not been met, rather we have got a rude shock of increased intensity of terrorist violence. TTP’s chief Noor Wali Mehsud along with his truculent band of terrorists has taken an oath of fealty at the hands of Taliban leader Mullah Hibtullah Akhundzada. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Afghanistan (TTA) and TTP were allies in their war against the US occupation and had developed operational linkages besides the ideological affinity. At macro level the political and ideological aim of both is to gain political power and establish a government run by Shariah. It is another thing that TTP is not a monolith but a motley alliance of criminal gangs and terrorist warlords hailing from former FATA called Newly Merged Districts (NMDs).
TTA is paying back the TTP now for its support and services during their joint struggle against the US and NATO/ISAF forces. Taliban recompense for them is a benign overlooking of their depredations against Pakistan. The sanctuaries once provided by TTP to TTA inside Pakistan are being reoccupied by TTP as their staging posts for attacks on Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies. Their ideological brethren in faith like ISKP and Al-Qaeda have also started joining forces to fish in troubled waters. Pakistan Army has sanitised these NMDs of the TTP presence in the past, but each time contrary to all expectations and logic the terrorist soufflé rises again. The reason perhaps is the disregard of the causes and drivers of that violence.
TTP violence thrives in an administrative and law enforcement vacuum driven by frustrations of a large cohort of tribal population that is feeing shortchanged by the state in provisions of public goods like peace, civic amenities and livelihood opportunities. The tribal (Now called NMDs) wasteland that is a consequence of decades of conflict and lack of development has started acting like a petri dish of terrorism. The war on terror and prolonged army deployment has led to an emasculation of civil administrative and governance structures in NMDS. There is virtually no police presence in NMDs and every administrative responsibility is referred to army. The neglect of the development of NMDs is evident in the shape of only Rs38 billion allocated out of the original 110 billion promised in NFC.
The counterterrorism departments of KP Police are enervated of funds and capacity with no presence of CTD Headquarters, forensics labs and police stations in NMDs. Logically and strategically, police need to be the first responder to terrorism but in its present shape the KP Police’s CTD apparatus is in no shape to take the brunt of TTP terrorism without Army and FC’s help. Army has been willy -nilly sucked into the quagmire of counterterrorism warfare whose present status is akin to Ayn Rand’s proverbial “Atlas Shrugged.” The more army tries to disentangle the more it is being entangled into the counterterrorism fray. It is time the civil administration and police are baptised with fire incrementally, with army acting as the foil.
The grouses of the local population and their genuine grievances need to be assuaged lest they fall victim to the blandishments of the terrorist narrative. Rights-based organisations like PTM and the war uprooted population need to be engaged and weaned off from the terrorist propaganda. While conducting classic counterterrorism operations, the age-old verity of “draining the swamp” should not be forgotten. The swamp of sympathetic population should be drained to deny TTP the terrain to operate from. The plus point with the government is that the tribes in NMDs are still with Pakistan and have not given up on the state. Rather there have been protests against the patch-up deals with the TTP by people in Swat and Bajaur.
People in NMDs have genuine grievances like the destruction of their businesses, inadequate compensation and slow settlement of the IDPs. There are also complaints about mine-infested areas and civilian casualties that need to be addressed at priority. The complexity of TTP and Taliban nexus needs to be understood with patience. The Taliban neither have the capacity nor the will to rein in TTP. TTP is a band of criminals tied together by selfish interests both pecuniary as well as power related. Their ‘Khawaraj’ (a terrorist band of early Islamic history) credentials are evident in the shape of their attacks on mosques, the latest being on 25th July at Landi Kotal.
Taliban regime in Afghanistan has no qualms in feting TTP terrorists like Yasir Parkey in Presidential Palace at Kabul and allowing suicide bombing trainers like Mufti Ahmed Shah and Mullah Sabir to operate from Khost and Kunar. Umar Khalid Khurasani, the mastermind of dastardly APS Peshawar attack, was killed in Afghanistan’s Eastern Paktia region along with terrorist leaders like Hafiz Daulat and Mufti Hasan. Pakistan needs to fight its own battle with TTP on its soil with resolve and courage. We need to do a better job of our border management as there are reports of terrorists slipping in amongst the normal daily visitors from authorised crossing points like Torkham and Chaman.
Instead of rhetoric sans action, positive engagement with Afghan Taliban should be kept. There are forces like RAW and other hostile intelligence agencies that are waiting in the wings to cozy up to Taliban. The global chessboard of geopolitical rivalry still features global powers interested in chaotic Afghanistan. Pakistan should not play into their game. Leverages like transit trade and humanitarian and technical aid should therefore never be lost in a heady rush of adrenalin.
Development in NMDS, better border control, strengthening of civilian counterterrorism and administrative apparatus along with a lead civilian role in governance and stabilisation of NMDs is the key to arrest the recrudescence of TTP violence.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 1st, 2023.
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