The end of WWII imposed an order which was underwritten by the domination of the two superpowers, the US and the USSR, neatly tied into a Cold War which delineated where one belonged and to what social and political philosophy one subscribed. Status quo was the name of the game geopolitically while the economic world was forged into capitalist and socialist denominations. It was a stable disorder with the world divided into two camps. The Western hemisphere — NATO, EU, and US allies — traded with each other supported by the strength of the IBRD — forerunner to the World Bank — and the IMF, both products of the post war American order.
As the USSR dissolved into Russia and China rose, both subscribed to the capitalist model designed initially at Bretton Woods, governed later by the WTO and underwritten by the US dollar as the currency of international acceptability. This was the moment when Francis Fukuyama felt that ‘history had ended’ with two of America’s nemeses — China and Russia — embracing the model to plug into the global financial system. He spoke too soon. China kept progressing unbridled, feeding the frenzy of a consumptive American economy which had stopped producing and based itself on imports, mostly from China. China soon stood at the same mantle or better than the American economy — in numbers the Chinese economy is only marginally lower but in resilience it is the strongest economy on earth. Russia too remains buoyant despite the war it is tangled in.
The rise of China accompanies signs of an alternate order in the making. The financial world is increasingly unsure of the unquestioned domination the US dollar has enjoyed over the years. It is still the commanding currency in international trade but is under increasing threat of being marginalised or replaced as it faces increased buffets in the American and European economies amid a looming threat of stagnation if not recession. The unnecessary war in Ukraine — subscribed and funded by the western world and the commodities super-cycle resulting from it — compounded by supply chain difficulties triggered by Covid, and disruptions in oil and gas — triggered by the US to keep Europe under its domain by cutting off European dependence on Russia — means the western world is in throes of self-created crises without a solution on offer.
This is when another set of tradeable currencies supported by China and Russia is making the rounds. Even India, the new kid on the block, is offering the Indian rupee as a tradeable denomination. Crypto currencies will topple what little is left of the hold of the US dollar. The financial world is getting there and the US other than twisting and turning arms or fighting a rearguard battle to somehow stave off the inevitable has nothing else to fight this rapidly enveloping onslaught. This is the world our children and grandchildren will inherit. The world shall cease to be a world of neatly divided orders.
Supplant that with challenges premiered in the last few years. What havoc will climate change cause is still not fully comprehended. South Asia and the Middle East are experiencing cycles of freak weather with major temperature variations. This is bound to impact the cropping patterns. Mankind will need to relearn and readjust. Whether it will mean newer seeds to withstand climatic extremes suitable to different seasons of growth, or newer crops to meet the challenge of feeding very large populations, is itself a question waiting to be answered. Global warming and its impact on the rising seas will gorge coastal metropolises disrupting disastrously the habitat and the stability of the current pattern of life. Historically, civilisations were wiped off because of major climatic catastrophes. Developments in science may inform man differently to handle these extremes but indifference to the impending threat will result in similar consequences.
Add to it the impact of quantum jumps in Biotechnology and Artificial Intelligence. The two together portend an era unseen and unimagined. The human genius may once again find ways to tame the two, but it helps to beware of how what can help humanity unearth and disclose more secrets of the universe and of their own being. It also has the wherewithal to wreak untold, uncontrolled misery and strife. I recently quoted Yuval Hariri, the futurist thought leader, how AI driven Chat-GPT could upstage language which underpins human civilisation, almost spelling its end, unless controlled and regulated. But like any dual-use technology, this combination will be a boon or a bane with equally transformative or devastating results in the manner of their use.
The recent pandemic may have only been a precursor to what looms. Whether it was manufactured or culturally evolved or just another strike from nature, mankind is still at a loss to conclude. Either way it was a biological strike on human race. Many more of these will occur. Medical science has broken the DNA code of life in any form. How it may be manipulated to what result and purpose can only instill fear among those who understand the anvil on which stands human race. A combination thus of how the new world will be forced to contend with these challenges defines the era that our grandchildren and perhaps our children will see. It scares me to imagine how poorly equipped societies will negotiate this maze.
Superimposed over these new triggers and determinants defining the new civilisation is the supra-structure of politics which is meant to nourish, guide, mentor and lead the people through the challenges. Populist politics is the new mantra which bases itself on misplaced altruism and tribal nationalism. This is a model of exclusivism obviating the need for humanity to work together to face off what common challenges are now visible. Insularity and exceptionalism instead will form a backdrop justifying inimical use of these technologies as a tool of war. Politically, humanity will revert to the pre-WWI world with tools at its hands much deadlier and destructive to exterminate competing civilisations. Muskets in WWI were limited in their destructive potential despite the political parsing.
PS: As I write these lines PTI Chairman, Imran Khan, and most of the senior leadership has been arrested on charges yet to be proven in court. Thus opens the Pandora’s Box which will unleash its own dynamics in a world already with a full plate of issues. The Pakistani society, laggard for its own reason and driven by rhetoric and sentiment, is an uncontrolled beast. When unrestrained they generate their own momentum. What all will they burn, and break is anyone’s guess. Action begets reaction. The need is to break this cycle. In an economy where nothing is being built, there is little space for leveling what we have.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 12th, 2023.
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