America’s growing reliance on India is viewed with a growing sense of unease in Pakistan. Some astute Pakistani analysts tired pointing out that India may not be a reliable strategic partner for the US, and that it would try to preserve its trade relations with China, its military ties with Russia, while securing maximum American support to bolster its own capabilities. Such assessments were not being paid much heed internationally, perhaps for being biased. However, a growing number of powerful American voices have now also begun to caution their own policymakers about adopting an overoptimistic attitude towards India.
On the heels of Prime Minster Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the US, ex-President Barrack Obama warned that India may “pull apart” if its minorities, especially the Muslims, are not respected. Several US-based analysts have also begun to specifically question America’s increasing reliance on India. Consider, for instance, two recent articles in the prominent magazine, Foreign Affairs, written by foremost US-based experts concerning problems with America’s current approach towards India.
In the first of these, Ashley Tellis, who holds the Tata Chair at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, has asserted that the India will not side with the US in a confrontation with China, lest its own interests are being directly threatened. The fact that Tellis has made this claim is in an article titled ‘America’s bad bet on India’ was itself quite telling given that this scholar has been a longstanding and ardent advocate of bolstering US-India ties.
In the other article, Daniel Markey, a Senior Advisor for South Asia, at the US Congress funded American thinktank, the United States Institute of Peace, has written an article titled ‘India as It Is: Washington and New Delhi Share Interests, Not Values’. In it, Markey advises Washington to stop looking at New Delhi “through rose-colored glasses”. Markey points out that Hindu nationalism is not only causing problems at home, but also has international implications. The autocratic Modi regime is said to be promoting illiberal aims abroad via overseas RSS-affiliated groups in the Indian diaspora to exert influence in major capitals, including in Washington DC.
According to Markey, US policymakers should recognise that India is not an ally, but an “illiberal partner”. He cautions US decision-makers against trying to build an alliance with India which is modeled on its relationship with NATO states. Being a realist, Markey argues for pivoting the bilateral US-India relationship towards more transactional security concerns which are focused on containing China. Markey further cautions US policymakers to be wary of building Indian defence capabilities in ways which further undermine regional insecurities.
Such reassessments of the Indo-American relationship are indeed sobering. Unfortunately, the spate of business and defence deal signed between the US and India during Modi’s recent state visit to DC indicates that the US administrative machinery has not paid enough heed to cautionary advice by Indian experts within the US itself.
Despite the growing consternation concerning India’s autocratic posture at home, and its antagonism towards religious minorities, President Joseph Biden did not take PM Modi to task on such issues, and merely made indirect references to the need for ensuring freedom and tolerance. Conversely, the White House issued a joint statement with India warning Pakistan to do more to prevent cross-border terrorism. On the other hand, the US has largely accepted India’s contentious revocation of Kashmir’s special status. America’s stance towards India’s dangerous aggressions, after a suicide bomber killed Indian soldiers in Pulwama (near Srinagar), was acquiescent at best.
America’s muted response to India’s continued repressions in Kashmir, and to the persecution of its sizeable Muslim minority, has made the situation within the subcontinent more dangerous, and simultaneously undermined America’s credibility to act as a referee in times of crisis.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 8th, 2023.
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